Did it rise to some level and then fluctuate wildly in response to famines and changes in climate? Robust population data exist only for the last two or three centuries. The row showing total world population includes the average growth rate per year over the period separating each column from the preceding one. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; The global human population will reach 9.8 billion in 2050. One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, from Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 A.D. is 45 million. share. Using the UN estimates for birth rates (, Haub (1995): "The average annual rate of growth was actually lower from 1 A.D. to 1650 than the rate suggested above for the 8000 B.C. Popul Today. "Population of the entire world, yearly, 1950 - 2100", 2013. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf, John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? The assumption of constant population growth in the earlier period may underestimate the average population size at the time. There’s no doubt that humans have changed the face of the planet in countless ways since we first arose as the dominant species on Earth. Human Population Growth Estimates. Waiyaki Way Cassia House, Ground Floor (For a brief bibliography of sources consulted in the course of this alchemy, see [Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones 1978])." : Living People Outnumber the Dead, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?". Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million. Clearly, the period 8,000 B.C.E. Fixing a time when the human race actually came into existence is not straightforward. Close. According to the United Nations Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, modern Homo sapiens may have appeared about 50,000 B.C.E. How many people have ever lived on earth? ____D____ Each element, such as hydrogen and iron, has a set of gaps—wavelengths that it absorbs rather than radiates. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges: Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "10,000 BC", i.e. This year’s edition includes a special focus on the world’s youth (ages 15-24), with indicators and analytical graphics showing countries by population, the current world population and other key indicators. PRB estimates the 2018 worldwide total fertility rate (TFR, or average births per woman over their lifetime) at 2.4; the global TFR has been declining for the past few decades but remains high enough to generate continued population growth. Nairobi, Kenya One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, spanning Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 C.E., is 45 million. Population Reference Bureau According to the United Nations' "Determinants and … Table 2. The Neolithic revolution, as it is called, forever changed the interaction between humans and the world around us by introducing the basic ingredient that makes civilization possible: agriculture. [32] It is therefore estimated by some that populations in Mexico, Central, and South America could have reached 37 million by 1492. 4 (no 3), pp. Children were probably an economic liability among hunter-gatherer societies, a fact likely to have led to the practice of infanticide. Divided into three periods: Paleolithic (or Old Stone Age), Mesolithic (or Middle Stone Age), and Neolithic (or New Stone Age), this era is marked by the use of tools by our early human ancestors (who evolved around 300,000 B.C.) The estimates are in fact for 14 AD". 162–173. Table 1. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. Given the current global population of about 7.5 billion (based on our most recent estimate as of 2019), that means those of us currently alive represent about 7 percent of the total number of humans who have ever lived. Kapitza, 'The phenomenological theory of world population growth', Haub (1995): "Clearly, the period 8000 B.C. (Very rough figures are given in the table, representing averages of an estimate of ranges given by the United Nations and other sources.) How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth? Klein Goldewijk, K., A. Beusen, M. de Vos and G. van Drecht (2011). It is believed that half the Byzantine Empire was destroyed in the 6th century, a total of 100 million deaths.". 1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW Suite 520 Rates then declined to the low 30s by the modern period. Its earliest utterance we discovered is in a 2002 Nature article, unfortunately unreferenced: "Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived." Homo sapiens has experienced nearly two full glacial … 1), pp. Experts believe that half the Byzantine Empire was destroyed by plague in the 6th century, a total of 100 million deaths. level 1. be false precision; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best (estimates by the United States Census Bureau and by the United Nations differ by about 0.5–1.5%). Since human beings have lived around the mountain for more than 10,000 years, it is likely that people witnessed that eruption. 1. Under these conditions, the birth rate would have to be about 80 per 1,000 people just for the species to survive. to 1 A.D. is key to the magnitude of our number, but, unfortunately, little is known about that era. Many scientists look at volcanoes for answers, but these natural forces are not enough to explain the disturbances of Earth’s climate variability over thousands of years, like the above 4-3,000 BC change. Year Summary Biraben Durand Haub McEvedy and Jones Thomlinson UN, 1973 UN, 1999 USCB; Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper; 10000 BC: 1: 10: 4: 1: 10: 8000 BC: 5: 5: 6500 BC The good tribes are the only people in this movie who have mastered the Queen's English, naturally. To be sure, calculating the number of people who have ever lived is part science and part art. McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978, "Atlas of World Population History," Facts on File, New York, pp. We know from the Bible, however, that around 2500 BC (4,500 years ago) the worldwide Flood reduced the world population to eight people.3 But if we assume that the population doubles every 150 years, we see, again, that starting with only Noah and his family in 2500 BC, 4,500 years is more than enough time for the present population to reach 6.5 billion. 60% Upvoted. [10], Recent estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" are in the order of 100 billion. So, our estimate here is that about 7 percent of all people ever born are alive today (see Table 2). Infant mortality in the modern human race’s earliest days is thought to have been very high—perhaps 500 infant deaths per 1,000 births, or even higher. depict early societies sheds a lot of light on how human history is mangled. However, other historians set the figure twice as high, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be. One reason for the abnormally slow growth was the Black Death. The rate of population growth in this period was extremely slow, owing to the hardships that surrounded human survival. For the period of Classical Antiquity to the Middle Ages, roughly 500 BC to AD 1500, there has also been a general tendency of growth (estimated at roughly a factor 4 to 5 over the 2,000 year period), but not strictly monotonic: A noticeable dip in world population is assumed due to the Black Death in the mid-14th century.[14]. The epidemic may have begun about 542 A.D. in Western Asia, spreading from there. Haub, Carl, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Still, with some assumptions about prehistoric populations, we can get a rough idea of this historic number (see Table 1). to 1 C.E. Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Statistical Appendix (2007, ggdc.net). For times after World War II, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers (typically given by country) of widely diverging accuracies. Notes: Numbers appearing in bold are from the 2019 updates. How many people have ever lived on this planet since the around 10,000 B.C.E. By dividing by the average lifespan, one obtains an estimate of how many people have ever lived. The slow population growth over the 8,000-year period—from an estimated 5 million to 300 million in 1 C.E.—results in a very low growth rate of only 0.0512 percent per year. Since then, more than 108 billion members of our species have ever been born, according to estimates by Population Reference Bureau (PRB). The first humans had to deal with … As the Würm/Wisconsin ended, settlement of northern regions was again possible. Population estimates for world regions based on Maddison (2007),[30] in millions. to 2007 A.D. With each set of estimates starting with the first number available, the missing years have been filled i… Under these conditions, the birth rate would have to be about 80 live births per 1,000 people just for the species to survive. 10,000 years ago: European males – 162.5cm (5 ft 4 inches). !Rob Subject: [topdocumentaryfilms] Re: Journey to 10,000 BC This dreaded scourge was not limited to 14th century Europe. Our birth rate assumption will greatly affect the estimate of the number of people who have ever lived. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub (1995) at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC (beginning of the Upper Paleolithic), and inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history.[13]. Birth rates were set at 80 per 1,000 per year through 1 C.E. Rates then declined to the low 30s by the modern period. The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human induced land use change over the past 12,000 years, Global Ecology and Biogeography20(1): 73-86. The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (for example, −10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate. I'd be more impressed if the effects didn't look so out of place with the actors most of the time. One reason for this abnormally slow growth was the Black Plague. to about 100 C.E.) Around 10,000–7000 years ago (8000–5000 BC), humankind experienced perhaps its most important revolution. Email: PRBKenya@prb.org, © 2021 Population Reference Bureau. have been put at only 10 or 12 years. Posted by 9 years ago. Email: communications@prb.org, Kenya Office In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service. PMID: 12288594 Abstract PIP: An estimate of the total number of persons who have ever lived on earth depends on two factors: 1) the length of time humans have been on earth; and 2) the average size of human populations at different periods. This value was not exceptional for the earliest hominins over 4 million years ago. Hominids walked the Earth as early as several million years ago, and various ancestors of Homo sapiens appeared at least as early as 700,000 B.C.E. Privacy Policy. New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast . For the time of speciation of Homo sapiens, some 200,000 years ago, an effective population size of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early Homo sapiens of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals. Life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about 10 years for most of human history. originally appeared on Quora: the knowledge sharing network where compelling questions are answered by people with unique insights. All Rights Reserved. We start at the very, very beginning—with just two people (a minimalist approach!). One complicating factor is the pattern of population growth. ... of course, pushing the date of humanity's arrival on the planet before 50,000 B.C. The way films like 10,000 B.C. Assuming that we start counting from about 50,000 B.C., the time when modern Homo sapiens appeared on the earth (and not from 700,000 B.C. ", "The present figures are a revision and update of those presented on this website in 2003. The estimates for those ever born apply only to live births; still births are not counted. The most significant changes are in the entries for the year 1, where gaps in previous tables have been filled with the new estimates for the Roman Empire in Maddison (2007). (Not wind erosion) If you go back to 10,500 BC, you have your answers. 50,000 YA Humans running from drought have left Africa, taking a coastal route to India.. 50,000 YA Mating between Neanderthals and people called Denisovans introduces genes that will help modern humans cope with viruses. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub (1995) at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC (beginning of the Upper Paleolithic), and inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history. 4, pp. Just something that came to mind. Other historians, however, set the figure twice as high, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be. [34], World Population Estimates, 20 Countries and Regional Totals, 0–2000 AD (in thousands), range of estimates for average growth rates over the preceding century according to the data cited under, CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (, Per Sjödin, Agnès E Sjöstrand, Mattias Jakobsson and Michael G B Blum, "Resequencing data provide no evidence for a human bottleneck in Africa during the penultimate glacial period" Mol. This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. The sum of the total person-years for all these intervals gives the total person-years for all human life. Birth rates were set at 80 per 1,000 per year through 1 A.D. and at 60 per 1,000 from 2 A.D. to 1750. Estimates of average life expectancy in Iron Age France (from 800 B.C.E. We first made this estimate in 1995, with updates in 2002, 2011, 2018, and 2020. or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today" can be traced to the 1970s. This thread is archived. Guesstimating the number of people ever born, then, requires selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period. Or did it grow at a constant rate from one point to another? Source for January 2020 Update: Toshiko Kaneda, Charlotte Greenbaum, and Kaitlyn Patierno, 2019 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2019); United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2017). Humans May Have Arrived in North America 10,000 Years Earlier Than We Thought A 24,000-year-old horse jawbone is helping rewrite our understanding of human habitation on the continent The average annual rate of growth was actually lower in this period than the rate suggested for the preceding period from 8,000 B.C.E. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals. [3] best. How many people have ever lived on this planet since the around 10,000 B.C.E. These hunter-gatherers lived a physically demanding lifestyle that would have required greater body strength than the average human today. 342-351. Explore population, health, and environment data on the Data Sheet’s interactive digital site. Volcanoes are global in affecting the Earth, but they have very short lived effects, years to decades. Estimates of average life expectancy in Iron Age France have been put at only 10 or 12 years. [9] When considering population estimates by world region, it is worth noting that population history of indigenous peoples of the Americas before the 1492 voyage of Christopher Columbus has proven difficult to establish, with many historians arguing for an estimate of 50 million people throughout the Americas, and some estimating that populations may have reached 100 million people or more. Estimates back to 10,000 BC, US Census Bureau by various authorities: ... , Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10, table 2. Washington, DC 20009 Their recent African ancestry may have also affected their height, as tall, long-limbed builds are useful adaptations to the warmer African climate. probably would have worked better as a silent movie, or a subtitled one, as most of the dialogue that comes out of the mouths of these people are as wooden as the spears they carry. During this period, humans used primitive tools and had not started agriculture as a way of life. Bubonic plague kills up to 10,000 people a day in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East 1345-1400. How Many People Have Ever Lived? Published estimates for the 1st century ("AD 1") suggest uncertainty of the order of 50% (estimates range between 150 and 330 million). By 1800, however, the world population passed the 1 billion mark, and it has since continued to grow to its current 7.5 billion. In all likelihood, human populations in different regions grew or declined in response to famines, the vagaries of animal herds, hostilities, and changing weather and climatic conditions. At this time human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary hunter-gatherer populations, with anatomically modern humans existing alongside archaic human varieties, some of which are still ancestral to the modern human population due to interbreeding with modern humans during the Upper Paleolithic. [4][5], Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the Paleolithic, are of a different nature. [33] Additionally, the population estimate of 2 million for North America for the same time period represents the low end of modern estimates, and some estimate the population to have been as high as 18 million. Finding estimates for milestone years such as 200 B.C., 1 A.D., or 1,000 A.D. is not difficult; it's acquiring an estimate for a random year like 760 A.D. that can drive a researcher to madness.To fill in the gaps between these estimates, a spreadsheet has been created that lists all available estimates from 10,000 B.C. "So, our estimate here is that about 5.5 percent of all people ever born are alive today." How will humans look 10,000-100,000 years from now? Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding. Anyway, I have only recently stumbled upon this site and enjoy it very much and am glad we live in a period where information is so readily available, when I was young I remember wishing I could access some kind of video information library.Thanks for sharing your time in the operation of this site! hide. Given the current global population of about 7.5 billion (based on our most recent estimate as of 2019), that means those of us currently alive represent about 7 percent of the total number of humans who have ever lived. 7.02, 7.06 and 7.08 billion by the United States Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to Since then, more than 108 billion members of our species have ever been born, according to estimates by Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Haub (1995): "By 1 A.D., the world may have held about 300 million people. Around 10,000 BC, most people lived in hunter-gatherer communities scattered across all continents except Antarctica and Zealandia. The pre-agrarian period refers to the era when humans were starting to make their way up the pyramid of life. 34 (no. Estimates cited are for the beginning of the 1st millennium ("year 0"), the beginning of the 2nd millennium ("year 1000"), and for the beginning each century since the 16th (years 1820 and 1913 are given for the 19th and 20th century, respectively, as Maddison presents detailed estimates for these years), and a projection for the year 2030. ", Haub (1995): "Life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about 10 years for most of human history. This article is an updated version of one of the most popular features on PRB’s website, estimating the number of people who have ever been born. The interbreeding will embody as much as 4 percent of the human genome. During this era, early humans shared the planet with a number of now-extinct hominin relatives, includin… Climate change - Climate change - Climate change since the advent of humans: The history of humanity—from the initial appearance of genus Homo over 2,000,000 years ago to the advent and expansion of the modern human species (Homo sapiens) beginning some 150,000 years ago—is integrally linked to climate variation and change. for example, the world population for the year 2012 was estimated at This growth is driven in large part by advances in medicine and nutrition that lowered death rates, allowing more people to live into their reproductive years. 1995 Feb;23(2):4-5. to 1 A.D. period. Bubonic plague (“The Plague”) kills at least a third of Europe’s population 1918-1919. 13–25. "La catastrophe démographique" (The Demographic Catastrophe"), Historical projections of population growth, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, population history of indigenous peoples of the Americas, "Mitochondrial DNA signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia", "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans", "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation? It is difficult to come up with an average world population size over this period. report. That’s actually a fairly large percentage when you think about it. is key to the magnitude of our number, but, unfortunately, little is known about the population size in that era. would also raise the number, although perhaps not by terribly much. Phone: +254 735 084293 In any case, life was short. Beginnings of agriculture. From the beginning of the early modern period until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a faster-than-exponential growth. Population Control: Real Costs, Illusory Benefits, Population and housing censuses by country, International Conference on Population and Development, Human activities with impact on the environment, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Estimates_of_historical_world_population&oldid=1010915398, Short description is different from Wikidata, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 8 March 2021, at 01:00. to 1 C.E. We cannot know the answers to these questions, although paleontologists have produced a variety of theories. As a proxy for brain size and sophistication, they measure endocranial volume, the amount of space within the skull. If we were to make any guess at all, it might be that our method underestimates the number of births to some degree. Phone: 800-877-9881 Population growth through history from 5000 BC to the current year (2021) for the entire population of the world Under these circumstances, a disproportionately large number of births would be required to maintain population growth, and that would raise our estimated number of the “ever born.”. This dreaded plague was not limited to 14th-century Europe, but may have begun in western Asia about 542 C.E., and spread from there. By 1 C.E., the world may have held about 300 million people. Westlands Office Park Infant mortality in the human race's earliest days is thought to have been very high—perhaps 500 infant deaths per 1,000 births, or even higher.
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